"There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others."
--Niccolo Machiavelli
Before Man could learn how to walk or how to gather food, he learned how to fight, or it may be remarked that fighting was an instinct which he needed, to survive among his own counterparts and other creatures. Consequently, men made families, kin groups, clans, tribes for security from being harmed by other men or to face the wrath of nature collectively. After studying the rise and fall of so many civilizations, the question might come in our minds- Can men live without this conquest at all? History would give us a plain 'NO' for an answer.
Coming to the modern times, it is said that World War I and II were fought to make this world fit for democracy. After the World War II, many attempts were made to avoid these circumstances in the future but if we carefully observe todays world, it would lead us to drastic and sometimes devastating conclusions that can neither be ignored nor be avoided. The period of a few decades, in which we're living right now, is the brief pause between two Wars. Yes, I'm talking about World War III. Now, if we observe the world around us there is an interesting situation building up. Normal people, either dont' care or are too foolish or too busy with irrelevant things, do not notice these changes happening.
The question arises, that if there is a war which is fit for the term world war, who are the forces which will fight and on what issues? what can be the magnitude of the war? On what scale can destruction happen in modern era? The questions are not simple but nevertheless, answerable.
THE ALLIED FORCES- The allied forces would undoubtedly be headed by the USA and west European nations, Russia, Israel, east european nations who are over with their communist hangover and who have a bit of islamo-phobia, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Canada, India (critical role) and a few other nations.
THE COMMUNIST AND ISLAMIC FORCES- I do predict an alliance between communist and islamic states and those states that are both, with less doubt. In both communist and islamic states the sphere of state action is very wide with the state controlling almost, if not all aspects of human life. They all incorporate one or the other form of dictatorship. Those islamic countries that have a civil democtatically elected government are just an eyewash. They flout the basic principles of democracy and their governments are always looking for an opportunity to convert to totalitarianism again. China, North Korea, 57 islamic countries including the middle east, some countries of north africa, central asian countries like Kazakistan, turkmenistan, kyrgystan may also join. Islamic terrorism will have an important role to play too.
THE BUILD-UP- Now USA, is following a policy that most fail to understand. Even though I dont question their intentions, I do think that there is a "flaw in the plan". Now the governments of many countries, especially USA, China, Israel, Iran and some european nations are not only aware of this alarming situation but also acting to tackle the situation. USA is interested in Pakistan due to the following reasons---
- Ideal for a military base to tackle china, north korea and Iran.
- To check that terrorism atleast does not get to its mainland.
USA is not paying much attention to the Middle East, which has equal number of US haters, because it knows Israel can handle them better than the US. USA is convinced it has no threat whatsoever from India but at the same time, wants it to talk to pakistan to avoid a possible Indo-pak war which may ruin its china plan. In the mean while, the islamo-phobia is taking a toll on european people with legislations, referendums all attempting to curb their radical activities.
NUCLEAR POWER- Interestingly, for the first time in any war, both the forces have enough nuclear arsenal to destroy the whole human race. This will inevitably be used and the results are, well, obvious.
A WAR BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND DICTATORSHIP? we can reach to this conclusion, and the previous world wars had the same nature. In this case, democtratic countries will face a collective power of both communist and authoritarian dictatorship.
A WAR BETWEEN CHRISTIANITY AND ISLAM? Even though many other religions will have their impact but this can "partially" be a christian-islam war as no islamic and christian country will be on the same side (Not taking into account Afghanistan's role).
Now, this war is inevitable as no steps taken now by a country or group of country can significantly change the situation altogether. The provisions of peace have to be made after a war and not when the whole situation is already built up. To avoid a possible war, arrangements had to be made after 1945 itself, but that time is long gone and I'm unable to comment of the UN's role in the prospective war.
An important thing to mention at the end. War is an ugly thing but not the ugliest thing. The decayed and degraded state of patriotism that thinks nothing is worth war is much worse. A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight , nothing he cares about more than his own personal safety, has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by exertions of men better than himself. And we must also agree to the fact that men are not peaceful by nature. Men rise from one ambition to another: first, they seek to secure themselves against attack, and then they attack others. All we can do is hope for people and there leaders to act wisely so as to minimise the loss. Once its over, those of us who're alive need to learn the lessons which we failed to learn after world war I and II, lest we face these circumstances again when we might not be that lucky and we may go on to prove the saying that- every civilization bears within itself, the seeds of its own destruction.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
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